Drawing of an unmotivated voter portraying the sentiment of Peruvian and Chilean voters. Image courtesy of Minutos Urbanos
By Paola Martos
Disinterest in politics is a problem for any democratic country; voting and engaging in the political arena provides legitimacy to the representative government. Political apathy is starting to be a pressing issue in Peru and Chile, who experienced the lowest voter turnouts in the region during 2020. In Chile, the main problem is political representation. Political representation is the mechanism that links politicians with voters which is why its stability is essential for a democracy. Chile’s trend for poor political representation remains prominent, exacerbated by a generational reluctance to vote among the youth. Like in the UK, political apathy within the youth population is an issue in Chile. Chile and Peru are facing the same paradox: stable economic performance alongside increasing dissatisfaction with democracy and distrust in government.
Weak party institutionalization is associated with democratic failure. The current weak party systems in Chile and especially Peru explain declining interest in politics. Parties make democracy work - especially in Latin America, where elites substantially control politics, parties are the route to challenge them, and mobilise the population. The Peruvian party system was renewed after the competitive authoritarianism of Fujimori, and it is an example of a party system that is not ‘frozen’: there is a high turnover of political parties, with not many succeeding. Thus, Peru is facing a 'party system erosion' as parties fail to present ideal candidates, weakening their brand and voters’ commitment to them. The instability of Peruvian political parties means voters have few generational political loyalties, and so are even more inclined to ignore a politics which they feel doesn’t represent them. Chile is facing a dealignment process because the three strong social cleavages (religion, class, and regime) that gave rise to its party system in the past have weakened and a process of ideological convergence, favouring the right, is taking place.
So, is there a causal relationship between the decline in support for mainstream parties and interest in politics?
Voter Turnout
Voter turnout quantifies the electorate’s formal involvement in democracy. Voting in democratic elections is the most crucial form of political participation because it is how the accountability and legitimacy of the government are established. From Figures 1, 2 and 3, we can see that there has been a substantial decline in voter turnout in Chile from 1989-2020. Chilean citizens are becoming increasingly disinterested in voting. In contrast, voting in Peru has been fluctuating within the last 30 years, increasing between 1990-2006 and then decreasing from 2006-2020.
There is a distinct difference between voting behaviour in Chile and Peru. From 1989-2009, Chile - where voting registration is voluntary - had a higher voter turnout than Peru - where voting is compulsory. Voter registration within the Chilean youth has halved from 2000-2010, which explains why there has been an association between lower turnout and a generational change in the Chilean electorate. Even though there is compulsory voting in Peru, voter turnout is low, and abstention is an increasing problem. Strong sanctions must be enforced for compulsory voting to work efficiently. Peruvians believe that sanctions for not voting are way lower than during the 90s and 2000s, which explains the rising abstention in Peruvian elections.
Mainstream Parties
The binomial electoral system (M=2) created a two-party system in Chile. As such, only two significant coalitions were built, Alianza (centre-right) and Concertación (centre-left). Every elected president in post-authoritarian Chile has been part of one of these coalitions, which has heavily discouraged electoral participation especially among the youth. This system makes it extremely difficult for third parties to succeed, like in majoritarian systems, and thus the electorate must choose between them. Concertación was the most supported coalition in post-transition Chile (Figure 4). However, there has been a growing inter-party movement of voters towards the right. The overall support for Concertación has decreased by 58.8% since 1989, which correlates with Figures 2 and 3, but Alianza has surprisingly prevailed throughout this time-period, maintaining its support.
In the 1990s, Peru faced a ‘crisis of party structures’ due to the growth of the informal sector that diminished partisan loyalty. Traditional parties such as APRA (Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana) and AP (Acción Popular) lost most of their electoral capital and led outsiders such as Fujimori to gain support. This trend correlates with the decline in voter turnout experienced in the 90s in Figure 1. After the 2020 extraordinary elections, the electorate did not vote for FP (Fuerza Popular), one of the biggest parties in the 21st century, in the same way as in previous elections. This correlates with the sharp decline in voter turnout from 2016-2020. Shockingly, FREPAP (Frente Popular Agrícola del Perú), an evangelical Christian fundamentalist party that had not been present since 1995, was the second biggest party in Congress in 2020. This radical change suggests increasing distrust in mainstream parties such as FP that caused abstention and the increased proportion of invalid and blank votes. Also, it provides evidence of how much more volatile Latin American systems are compared to European.
Degree of Trust in Political Parties
The importance of trust and efficacy in political institutions is a factor that explains engagement in politics. In open-list systems, personal reputation is higher, which is why particularism incentivises political candidates to seek ways of maximising their benefits beyond what is legally permitted. In Peru and Chile, as in most Latin American countries, frequent corruption scandals have ensured that distrust in political parties remains very high. The level of partisan sympathy in Chile is one of the lowest in the Americas and Peru’s primary issue for the last five years has been corruption.
Peruvian Presidents accused of corruption in the Odebrecht scandal. Image courtesy of Alberto Vergara, Infobae.
Figures 5 and 6 show that Peru and Chile have been facing a similar trend of distrust in political parties. Chile’s has been fluctuating within the same range, but Peru’s has increased over the last four years. This correlates with increasing abstention in Peruvian elections despite compulsory voting. Corruption scandals are less influential on Chilean voters, as Chile punishes those involved. Peru’s weak vertical and horizontal accountability makes this impossible - and the electorate knows it. Likewise, even though they have similar levels of inequality, inequality is Chilean youth's most concerning problem.
Social Mobilization in Chile
The protests that took place in Chile throughout 2019 and 2020 are a sign of increasing interest in politics. Chile is a closed political system because electoral democracy is limited as Chileans do not feel represented by the electoral offer. As they cannot adequately translate their preferences into seats through elections, dissatisfaction builds up and protest activity increases. Furthermore, the social deprivation caused by inequality is a socioeconomic factor that further fuels protest activity. The problem is that political parties do not want to politicize social inequality. The inequality present in Chile provides evidence that economic performance is a factor that affects engagement in politics. In Latin America, as opposed to Western Europe, poor economic performance increases voter turnout. The lack of security and welfare state in Chile is what most of the youth feel is the most pressing issue in their country. They are politicising the economic discontent to make themselves heard.
Chilean protesters on the streets of Santiago on October 21, 2019. Image courtesy of Marcelo Hernando, Time Magazine.
In 2011 and 2019-2020, the protests have demanded referendums to change the educational system and the Constitution, respectively. Chile is the only country in Latin America that has the same constitution it had under a dictatorship. To attain their goal of changing the Constitution, the population is seeking information. Astonishingly, the Constitution was the most best-selling book in November 2019 in just a week, mostly bought by young people. As a direct result of these protests, Chile has promised to come up with a new Constitution in the next few years.
Looking at this evidence, I can say that in Peru there is no causal relationship between voter apathy and the decline in mainstream parties - rather, current disinterest in politics is caused by the corruption of political candidates within mainstream parties, alienating them from the electorate even though their goals align with the electorate’s preferences. Peruvian voters are increasingly dissatisfied with Peruvian politics, so they no longer engage with it. On the other hand, in Chile we can see that there is a causal and proportional relationship between the dealignment process and disinterest in politics, indicated by the decrease in voter turnout, because class cleavages no longer give rise to the party system. Though, in the last decade, the class cleavage has been portrayed by protests because parties are against politicising inequality. They are increasing their political participation with non-electoral alternatives to change the status quo given that decreasing their votes is not making a difference. In this case voter turnout is not the only relevant indicator. Looking at both cases, I agree that voters are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with politics. Still, the level of interest depends on whether the electorate perceives they can make a change in what they are unhappy with and act upon it, like the Chilean youth, which is an attitude mostly seen in advanced industrial democracies.
Paola Martos is a third-year Peruvian BSc Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) student at King's College London. She is mostly interested in the Latin American region's economy and politics.
